Thursday, April 30, 2009

A quadrillion reasons Obama will be a one term president

32-million unemployed a year is good?

Interesting report on new jobless claims. They “fell” to 631,000 new jobless claims this week from 645,000 last week. The way I figure it, that’s 32-million people unemployed in a year. That is not good.

This doesn’t include the underemployed with M.B.A.s delivering pizza, flipping burgers and those who say they are small business owners while they are actually applying for jobs.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is out of touch. Here’s what they estimate, “About 2.1 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in March, 754,000 more than a year earlier.”

“Marginally attached,” a great euphemism for under employed.

The BLS estimates each employed person is bringing in $600 per week. Tell that to those M.B.A. burger flippers. Looking at the figure, the U.S. is losing a quadrillion – that’s the number after trillion – a year in wages from unemployment. Think of the lost tax revenue on that!

Anyone claiming we’re in a recession rather than a depression is nuts. There were two economic stimulus packages that failed in the 1930s. We’re in the same case today. Did that 2008 stimulus check do any good? Has that trillion dollars Obama pushed through done anything?

For those who don’t know, I have predicted President Barack Obama will be a one term president. These numbers are the reason. No stimulus package will work. The U.S. is on its way to not existing.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

This is a true news story - not made up - no editing

From AZCentral, Arizona Republic's site:

"Border Patrol arrests 22 hiking into US with pot
"TUCSON - The U.S. Border Patrol says agents patrolling near Nogales have arrested 22 men after they were spotting carrying bales of marijuana into the U.S. from Mexico.

"Border Patrol spokesman Mike Scioli (See-OH'-lee bet he pronounces it Ski-O-lee) said Wednesday that the men were spotted by agents who called in a helicopter and additional officers. As the agents closed in, the men dropped their bundles of marijuana and ran away.

"Agents captured all 22 of them (was that the additional officers?) late Monday and seized 39 bundles of marijuana weighing more than 2,200 pounds. They also found a loaded .45-caliber pistol and 2 loaded magazines for an AK-47 assault rifle (Sure you just carry around the bullets when you don't have a gun. Do you think some may have escaped? Where's this reporting?).

"Scioli says the men were all identified as Mexican nationals who had entered the U.S. illegally."

This is GREAT reporting
Hat's off to AP Calvin Woodward

"WASHINGTON – "That wasn't me," President Barack Obama said on his 100th day in office, disclaiming responsibility for the huge budget deficit waiting for him on Day One. It actually was him — and the other Democrats controlling Congress the previous two years — who shaped a budget so out of balance.

"And as a presidential candidate and president-elect, he backed the twilight Bush-era stimulus plan that made the deficit deeper, all before he took over and promoted spending plans that have made it much deeper still.

"His assertion that his proposed budget "will cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term" is an eyeball-roller among many economists, given the uncharted terrain of trillion-dollar deficits and economic calamity that the government is negotiating."

I would have been fired for such editorializing in an article, but this is the 21st Century.

Raul Castro ABSOLUTELY correct

This AP headline says it all,

Castro: Onus not on Cuba for US better relations

“HAVANA – Raul Castro has dismissed Barack Obama's policy changes toward Cuba as "minimal" and says it is up to the U.S. — not Cuba — to do more to improve relations.”

Don’t let us become the Ugly Americans.

Is the investment world listening to Marketing Sociologist?

News headlines following this morning's Marketing Sociologist recommendation to buy stock:

"Stocks move higher after 2 days of losses

"NEW YORK – Investors aren't letting a bad gross domestic product reading get to them.

"Stocks surged Wednesday, lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 100 points, even after the government said the economy as measured by the GDP contracted at at an annual rate of 6.1 percent during the first three months of the year. That was a much steeper drop than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.

"Though the report shows the recession has yet to loosen its grip on the country, investors are not losing hope."

Mainstream media so lame at spotting trends

Tuesday? – see report below – this blog first mentioned Swine Flu on Sunday and it was mentioned on Phoenixrichard Twitter on Saturday.

Mainstream media has a hard time keeping up with trends. A year from now they’ll be reporting Marketing Sociology can help make you money – a full year-and-a-half after others had jumped on Marketing Sociologist bandwagon.

“LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Swine flu chatter spread swiftly through blogs and social network sites like Twitter and Facebook on Tuesday while U.S. cable news networks' saturation coverage of the outbreak gave way to a major political story.”

Now may be time to use tax refund to buy stocks
Still bullish on real estate
Oil futures

Last fall a Fox reporter featured me – thank you very much – on a segment about flu vaccine. I came prepared and talked about the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine and how it was such a fiasco for President Gerald Ford and it was only a way for vaccine makers to become rich.

That part got cut. I was portrayed as buffoonish because I was saying it is not wise for people to purchase flu shots at grocery stores as “impulse buys” while the health officials – not a one a doctor – were all saying, “get your flu shot.” We’ve seen this year’s vaccine was ineffective and now we have an outbreak of Swine Flu. The very thing I discussed with the reporter and it was cut!

Yet the reporter played up the marginally educated female government health officials in preference to a well educated Marketing Sociologist. As author Williams James said, “Any new theory is first attacked as absurd. Then it is admitted to be true but obviously insignificant. Finally, it is seen to be so important that its adversaries claim that they, themselves, have discovered it.”

Imagine if that reporter had run with the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine. Today he’d be the most lauded reporter in the nation.

So in a dream this morning I had a premonition that now is the time to buy stocks. I have held off and held off. I wouldn’t advise betting the farm yet, but I would advocate using those tax refund checks to go out and buy stocks. My prediction on Revlon last month panned out.

Do your research and find a good stock. No recommendations from me. I’m not a “broker.”

I’m still bullish on real estate. Another strong sign was yesterday’s announcements that last month home prices nationally fell by 18 percent if annualized – I’ll take that loss for future growth. That’s about a 1-and-a-half percent loss for the month.

I also have a “gut” instinct about oil futures, if you’re able to get into futures. Never, ever go with “gut” instinct when investing. If you do, become a “broker.”

Two years ago oil was trading around $70 per barrel. A year ago $140 per barrel. Today it is trading around the $52 per barrel mark. Five years ago, around $30 per barrel. Looking at this historical data – again, never go with a gut instinct – it is a safe bet oil will go up this fall. Now is the time to buy futures in this commodity.