The blog-o-sphere seems to idolize Seth Godin (and Peter Shankman, though he was brilliant creating HARO).
Mr. Godin has no comment section on his blog; or I couldn’t find it. I’m reluctant to be a joiner – as a journalist I was prohibited from joining – anything. Read Tony Hillerman’s “Fly On The Wall” to understand (he beat Miley Cyrus to the title by 35 years).
Evidently from his blog today, Mr. Godin has not become enlightened about the science of Marketing Sociology and the “Cycles” teaching of Edward R. Dewey, Wish there was a way to get hold of Mr. Godin through his blog, but will post it here.
The way to “look(ing) ahead” is to look at the past to predict the future. I admitted I was wrong about being in a Depression on March 12. The following week media was aflutter with news that housing starts are up, home prices are up, the stock market is up. If you look at the Dow 100 year chart, we could be in for a 500 percent stock market increase in the next 18 month. This is the science of Marketing Sociology, Mr. Godin. Creating wealth for businesses by looking at past “Cycles” and projecting them into the future.
As a Tween marketing sensei, I don’t know if I’d agree with teenage girls changing fashion every two years. Again, cycles. Look at the Jonas Brothers’ hair, then get a Jan and Dean album cover from 1965. Same hair – cycles. So the trend in five years could be long hair Doobie Brothers or Mark Farner style.
I will add, I know every three years Microsoft is going to introduce a new operating system to sell more product for the computer manufacturers it is in bed with.
Lastly, I must ask where the intelligencia in this nation are? The blog-o-sphere is crowded with under-educated idiots like this United States Bedouin. Let’s hear from the knowledgeable.
From Godin, 3-18-9:
Marketers are good at looking ahead. We predict/create the future, working to build an idea or a product into something that will matter more tomorrow than it does today.
The focus on the future, though, encourages us to take our attention away from what has worked in the past. The next time someone tells you that they've seen a UFO, ask them about this article. A look at a hundred years of UFOs and bigfoots and other things that were certain to change everything shows that they never have. Don't even get me started with the history of astrology.
My question to marketers with a huge idea, something that will change everything, is, "tell me about how someone has done this before." Of course there are first-time-ever groundbreaking exceptions that change the rules forever. But my guess is that you'd rather have a launch or a concept that can follow in the conceptual footsteps of what came before.
Every two years, teenage girls fall in love with an irresistible fashion fad. If you develop the next one, you can look at the last six for clues about how it works.
Every once in a while, a new technology is introduced online and it becomes the must-have, must-be-talked-about breakthrough. If you've got one of those, it would be useful to look at what made the last five work.
Every two weeks, there's a surprise bestseller in the bookstore. Surely we can learn from that process.
But, if all you've got is a lot of confidence and nothing to point to in the past, forgive me for being a bit skeptical. Hopeful, sure, but skeptical.